CBPP is a non-partisan research and policy institute founded in 1981 to analyze federal budget priorities, with a particular focus on how budget choices affect low-income Americans.
The institute released its report last week (June 6, 2017) and reported the financial impact of cutting enhanced federal matching funds for Medicaid expansion.
Arizona’s Medicaid agency, the Arizona Healthcare Cost Containment System (AHCCCS), now serves approximately 1.9 million people in Arizona.
According to the report, in Arizona, under current matching rules, the state would need to come up with $424.6 million dollars to maintain expansion in 2021, an increase of 134 percent, under the latest version of The American Health Care Act (AHCA). In 2023 the institute’s projections are worse with Arizona’s costs rising 185 percent or a state cost of $665.3 million.
Under the AHCA, implementing the lower matching rate starting in 2020 would result in only an estimated 100,000 of the 11.1 million low-income adults currently enrolled in the Medicaid expansion — or only about 1 percent — remaining at the enhanced expansion matching rate by the end of 2027. Starting implementation in 2020 but phasing down the expansion matching rate for new enrollees over several years would ultimately produce the exact same result as under the AHCA: just 100,000 people would remain at the enhanced expansion matching rate by 2027. Delaying implementation until 2022 would only modestly increase the number of grandfathered enrollees receiving the expansion match to 300,000 of the total 11.1 million current Medicaid expansion enrollees — fewer than 3 percent of them — by the end of 2027. (See Figure 1.)
Moreover, by 2025, the cost shift to states would be almost as large under the delayed implementation approach as under the current version of the AHCA. In states that chose to freeze their expansion enrollment, enrollment would fall by more than 66 percent by 2023 and by more than 90 percent by 2025.
Notably, the federal savings from cutting the Medicaid expansion, in combination with the provision to convert virtually the entire Medicaid program to a per capita cap or block grant, would help pay for the AHCA’s large tax cuts for people with very high incomes, drug companies, insurance companies, and other industries. People at the top of the income scale would receive multi-million-dollar tax cuts even as 23 million more people became uninsured and millions more were left without access to needed care.
Read the entire report from The Center on Budget and Policy Priorities