Different assumptions bring different results.
Paul Spitalnic, the chief actuary for Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, released a report June 13, estimating financial effects of the AHCA. He predicted the AHCA would reduce insurance coverage by 13 million people by 2026: 10 million less than the Congressional Budget Office prediction of 23 million.
The CMS actuary projected that the AHCA would reduce federal Medicaid spending by $383.2 billion from 2017 through 2026. The spending reductions would stem mainly from repealing Medicaid expansion to low-income adults. That’s far less than the $834 billion in Medicaid cuts projected by the CBO.
CMS predicts there would be 8 million fewer people covered by Medicaid in 2026 compared with current law. The CBO projected a Medicaid coverage decline of 14 million.
Read the CMS Actuary Report
Read “15 Quick Facts from the CBO Report” from Modern Healthcare
Read the Congressional Budget Office May 24, 2017 Report of the Cost Estimate of the AHCA.