The federal review also reported subsidized coverage for marketplace plans has fallen by 3 million and projects that by 2028, about 243 million Americans will be insured while the country’s uninsured rate will climb to 35 million.
The Congressional Budget Office expects the nongroup health insurance is expected to be stable in most areas of the country over the decade.
Debbie Johnston, senior VP of policy development for the Arizona Hospital and Healthcare Association (AzHHA) recapped the news.
- Premiums for benchmark plans are expected to increase by about 15 percent from 2018 to 2019 and about 7 percent annually through 2028
- Many of the agencies’ projected changes resulted from new assumptions regarding eliminating the individual mandate penalty and coverage gains since 2012. For example, 10 percent of the premium increase is attributable to the loss of the individual mandate penalty
- Coverage is also expected to impact the penalty elimination. For 2027, CBO projects subsidized marketplace coverage to be 3 million lower than the agency’s September 2017 report, and the total uninsured population is expected to be 5 million higher
- CBO included in the definition of “insurance coverage,” some enrollment in Association Health Plans and short-term plans – neither of which are required (under federal proposed rules) to include the consumer protections and essential health benefits mandated by the Affordable Care Act
According to the CBO’s estimates, in addition to rising health care costs per person, the 34 % YOY increase in the average premium costs for a benchmark plan (gross amount not including any premium tax credits) was caused by three primary factors: First, insurers are no longer reimbursed for the costs of cost-sharing reductions (CSRs) through a direct payment; second, a larger percentage of the population lives in areas with only one insurer in the marketplace; and third, some insurers expected less enforcement of the individual mandate in 2018 (which would probably induce some healthier enrollees to leave the market).
CBO Projections Include
Benchmark Premiums Up 15%
Benchmark Premiums Up 7%
Projected Net Federal Subsidies for Health Insurance – Down 5%
(2018 to 2027)
Read the coverage in Health Leaders
Read the full analysis in the CBO Report